EP 274: A Refresher... check it out!
Replay Episode — This one's a "blast from the past." David originally recorded this conversation in the last quarter of 2022, right in the middle of heavy recession fear and a rough year in the markets. He's bringing it back now because 2026 has had its own share of ups and downs, and the mindset underneath this conversation hasn't gone stale.
Joining David is Mike DiJoseph of Vanguard's Investment Advisory Research Center, whose team studies why investors make the decisions they make — and how a good advisor changes the outcome.
In This Episode
- Why financial news functions more like entertainment than information
- Vanguard's "Advisor's Alpha" research: the roughly 3% net-return value a good advisor adds over time
- A real 2020 case study: bailing out at the bottom turned $1M into $800K, while staying the course turned it into $1.2M
- Why the political party in power has a surprisingly weak relationship with market returns
- The behavioral finance reason your brain forgets years of gains the moment there's one bad year
- Reframing downturns: lock in the loss on the portfolio, or lock in the loss on the goal
Meet the Guest
Mike DiJoseph works within Vanguard's financial advisor services division, on the Investment Advisory Research Center team. He and David connected through the Financial Planning Association.
Key Moments
Approximate timestamps — this is a replay, so times are estimated from the conversation flow.
- 00:00 — Why David is replaying this episode now
- 03:30 — Meet Mike DiJoseph and Vanguard's research team
- 06:00 — Is a recession actually bad for the stock market?
- 10:30 — The Tesla thought experiment
- 13:00 — How one word turns a headline from bullish to bearish
- 16:00 — Staying the course doesn't mean standing still
- 19:00 — Does the party in power actually move the markets?
- 24:00 — The recency bias problem
- 27:00 — The 2020 case study: $800K vs. $1.2M
- 33:00 — What a good advisor is actually worth
- 37:00 — Insurance and estate-planning blind spots
- 41:00 — Personal definitions of wealth
Quotable
"You can either lock in the loss on the portfolio, or you lock in the loss on the goal."
"There is never going to be an all-clear signal. And to the extent that there is one, it's probably too late."
"When your values are clear, your decisions are easy."
Not sure if your portfolio — or your plan — is actually built for moments like this? Book a free 20-minute Vision Call: weeklywealthpodcast.com/vision
Connect with David directly: david@parallelfinancial.com
If this episode helped reframe how you're thinking about the market right now, share it with someone who needs to hear it — and follow the show so you don't miss what's next.
00:00 - Untitled
00:14 - Reflections on Market Mindsets
04:51 - Understanding Market Reactions to Economic Predictions
11:04 - Understanding Market Reactions in a Divisive Political Climate
14:19 - Understanding Market Reactions and Behavioral Finance
22:41 - The Importance of Staying Invested
31:00 - The Importance of Insurance in Financial Planning
34:20 - The Importance of Financial Independence
Well, here's a blast in the past.
Speaker AWe're doing something a little bit different today, replaying an episode from a couple years ago where we talked about how to think and what are some actions that you might think about taking when the markets are going up and down.
Speaker ANow, this episode was recorded back when there was a large fear of recession.
Speaker AWe're not quite in that area right now, but we've had some ups and downs of the markets this year.
Speaker AAnd I wanted you to have a refresher on some mindsets that might serve you well with when we're not seeing accounts go straight up by 20%.
Speaker ALike sometimes we get spoiled with so hope that you enjoy this episode.
Speaker BThis is the weekly wealth podcast with.
Speaker ACertified financial planner David Chudick, where we discuss the wealth building mindsets and tactics that can help you to build and maintain wealth for you, your family and your business.
Speaker CWell, hey everybody, welcome to this week's episode of the weekly wealth podcast where we talk about the mindsets, the tactics and the strategies that help you to build and maintain wealth.
Speaker CAs you know, my name is David Chudick and I'm a financial advisor with Parallel Financial.
Speaker CAnd what that means is I help my clients to make the right financial decisions for them for the reasons that are important to them.
Speaker CSo if there's anything keeping you up at night, you know, shoot me an email.
Speaker CDavidarallelfinancial.com we can talk about kind of what's going on in your financial life and, and see if there are any next steps.
Speaker CBut today, Mike DeJoseph is on with us and we're going to talk about some financial decisions that people make or maybe even some lack of decisions.
Speaker CWe're going to talk a little bit about why it typically is in a client's best interest to work with a financial advisor, what some of the things that financial advisors bring to the table for their clients.
Speaker CSo, hey, Mike, how are you?
Speaker DI'm doing well, David.
Speaker DThanks so much for having me.
Speaker CTell us a little bit about yourself and where in the world you reside.
Speaker DSure thing.
Speaker DSo, Mike De Joseph, I am at Vanguard, and so I work on our team that's in our intermediary business or financial advisor services division.
Speaker DAnd we have a research team within that division called the Investment Advisory Research Center.
Speaker DAnd so our team's goal is to work with individuals like yourself, financial advisors.
Speaker DYou know, I think Vanguard's known predominantly as the big, you know, retail investor shop, the Jack Bogle shop.
Speaker DBut it might be underappreciated that we're our Biggest division is actually working with individuals like yourself, financial advisors.
Speaker DAnd so my team exists to help you help your clients because we firmly believe that you helping your clients is the best thing you can do to help your own business as well.
Speaker DAnd so trying to get everything aligned.
Speaker DI think your theme of your podcast here, the mindset, the tactics, all of those things, are the type of stuff that we talk about.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker CWhat's interesting is the fpa, the Financial Planning association, which incidentally is where you and I met at the annual symposium for our state.
Speaker CBut the FPA is pushing to have some standardized criteria for someone to be able to call themselves a financial planner.
Speaker CTypically, and it happens to me all the time, is, you know, you'll meet someone and say, hey, what do you do for a living?
Speaker CWell, I'm a financial planner.
Speaker COh, really?
Speaker COkay, well, what's the market going to do?
Speaker COr, hey, if I gave you $100,000 right now, where would you invest it?
Speaker CAnd I always say some version of, I have no idea where I would invest your money.
Speaker CI don't know anything about you.
Speaker CYou might have a bunch of debt you need to pay off.
Speaker CI don't know what your risk tolerance is.
Speaker CI don't know what you want to do with the money.
Speaker CSo I plan.
Speaker CI mean, in part of the planning process, absolutely, is investment management, but we're looking holistically at the financial planning process to help, to help our clients.
Speaker CSo, yeah, so I've been watching on the news and there's all these different news stories about, you know, a recession is coming or recession's not coming, or there's X percent that a recession is coming.
Speaker CAnd then you get questions from clients on, well, should I be invested?
Speaker CI mean, is the market going to crash into recession?
Speaker CSo from your research background, talk to me a little bit about, like, is a recession a huge fear?
Speaker CDoes it mean the stock market's going to tank?
Speaker CAnd just talk to me a little bit about, like, when people are watching the financial news, should they.
Speaker CWell, should they watch the financial news at all?
Speaker CIs, I guess, question number one.
Speaker CAnd number two, how do you deal with this recession question?
Speaker DDavid, that's a fantastic question.
Speaker DAnd we're hearing similar things.
Speaker DI'll answer the second part first.
Speaker DAnd it's conditional, right?
Speaker DI would say no, they shouldn't be watching the financial news unless they acknowledge that it's more or less entertainment.
Speaker DAnd the reason I say that is because, again, I mean, we're sitting here in late October, all the economists, the news media, the cnbc, they're all talking about, well, what are the chances of recession in 2023?
Speaker DAnd so people hear that and they see person XYZ trusted source saying 60%, 80%, 100%.
Speaker DWe've seen some big bank CEOs basically say things are going to get really bad in the economy.
Speaker DAnd so I think it would only be natural for most investors to assume, well, if things are going to get bad in the economy, they're going to get bad in the market.
Speaker DThe way we address those concerns is to just remind people that markets are forward looking.
Speaker DThe stock market today is not reacting necessarily to what happened yesterday or even to what's going to happen in the next three to six months.
Speaker DThey tend to look forward through those different things and really they price in all of the aggregate viewpoints and opinions and bets that investors are taking over different time horizons.
Speaker DSo I mean, the way I would put it is if you think the economy is going to go in a recession next year, there's a very good chance that that's why the market has been down year to date, because the market priced that in.
Speaker DRight.
Speaker DAnd so as we sit here, we've been on a couple weeks of good market returns and maybe it's the bottom, maybe it's not.
Speaker DWe don't know.
Speaker DMy intuition is if it is, in fact the bottom is in and the market has kind of started to bounce back.
Speaker DThat's because people are pricing in the economy, going through a recession and bouncing back and you know, all the different things that go along with that.
Speaker DSo I think it's really important to just remind people, especially amateur investors, that the markets are forward looking.
Speaker CWell, and after every recession comes what I mean, the recession ends and the economy improves.
Speaker DThat's right.
Speaker DI mean a thought exercise I use sometimes.
Speaker DLet's use Tesla, just a huge company, one of the biggest companies out there.
Speaker DJust incredible success story over the last decade.
Speaker DLet's just say you think things are going to be so bad over the next 12 months that they will sell zero cars, but then the economy will recover and 10 years from now they're going to still be one of the biggest electric vehicle manufacturers.
Speaker DWill the stock go to zero because they sell zero cars next year?
Speaker DOr will you know, or will it trade on some multiple of those future cash flows far down the history line there?
Speaker CSo what does somebody do if you just hear so many different and it could even honestly depend on which news channel you're watching and I've even seen you pull up your CNBC app, just see where the markets are and you'll see a headline that says, market struggles to hold today's gains.
Speaker CBut it could just have easily said, hey, wow, the markets are up today.
Speaker CThat's a good thing.
Speaker CSo you can turn anything into a bad thing or a good thing.
Speaker CSo how did.
Speaker CHow should somebody react to the news?
Speaker CThat is, you know, again, it is entertainment and if it.
Speaker CIf it bleeds, it leads.
Speaker CGood news doesn't get viewership, so how should the individuals react to the news?
Speaker DYeah, you know, it's funny you say that.
Speaker DI've seen people kind of point out a couple times, you'll go on one of the big news sources and, you know, maybe early in the day the market's down and the headline will be, market is down because xyz.
Speaker DAnd then the market kind of bounces back and they only change the one word in the headline.
Speaker DThey'll say, the market is up because of xyz.
Speaker DRight.
Speaker DIt's just.
Speaker DIt's just kind of crazy.
Speaker DYou can take the same headline and just fill in whether the market's up or down and still run with it.
Speaker DSo it's hard.
Speaker DSo I think, you know, let's acknowledge that up front with empathy and understanding here.
Speaker DA big part of, you know, the research my team does is why people make the decisions they make.
Speaker DAnd, you know, it really just comes down to.
Speaker DIt's extremely difficult in the first place.
Speaker DBut what do you do directly?
Speaker DWell, you know, the one thing that we would say is, whether on your own or really ideally with an advisor, is to prepare ahead of time.
Speaker DThat's first and foremost.
Speaker DIt's understanding when you put into place your asset allocation and your risk tolerance and all those things are taken into account.
Speaker DIt's just understanding, I mean, if you have a large allocation to stocks in your portfolio, or really we could say bonds today, just given the activity in the bond market, there's just taking stock of what's happened in the past, right.
Speaker DWhat are the worst years, what are the best years?
Speaker DAnd just understanding that risk is not this abstract thing that the stock market might go down at some point.
Speaker DAnd that's what risk is.
Speaker DRisk is the reality that the stock market will go down and you will go through periods of significant downturns.
Speaker DAnd so you want to prepare yourself ahead of time for the fact that those moments will happen, even if they're only once every 10 years or once every two years, whatever they're going to be.
Speaker DAnd then we say, you can't control the markets.
Speaker DRight.
Speaker DNone of us have a crystal ball.
Speaker DWe don't know what they're going to do, but what we can control is our exposure to them.
Speaker DWe can try to control our emotional reactions to the markets when they happen.
Speaker DAnd then, you know, I'll say there are.
Speaker DThere are certain things that you can actually do.
Speaker DSo we say staying the course doesn't mean standing still.
Speaker DAnd the analogy, right.
Speaker DVanguard's known for our analogies towards boats and maritime theme.
Speaker DWe say it's like, you know, it's like setting sail, right?
Speaker DIf you don't just point in your direction and you're there.
Speaker DYou have tides and winds and they're constantly making these minor changes.
Speaker DSo you're staying the course.
Speaker DBut that does require changes along the way.
Speaker DAnd so those are things like rebalancing, which our data would show in aggregate, people generally don't do.
Speaker DIt's hard when the market's going up.
Speaker DYou have to sell your winners and you get attached to them.
Speaker DAnd it's hard when the market's going down.
Speaker DYou have to buy the losers.
Speaker DAnd the natural tendency there is, well, just wait and let it go down the rest of the way and see what happens.
Speaker DSo it's things like that and then, David, stuff that you might be doing, right?
Speaker DRoth conversions and tax loss, harvesting some of the more complex financial strategies that are really most applicable during a market downturn, you know, and it's not to, you know, it's not to gloss over the negative effects.
Speaker DI mean, losing money hurts, especially if you're in retirement, for example.
Speaker DYou know, it's not easy, but there are things that you can do.
Speaker CIn today's world of social media, politics is just huge.
Speaker CAnd I'm not going to ask you.
Speaker DWho you voted for.
Speaker CI don't care.
Speaker CYou're a nice guy.
Speaker CWhether we voted for the same person or not, I don't care.
Speaker CBut.
Speaker CBut we live in a pretty divisive world now on political views are held pretty strongly.
Speaker CSo what do you say to the person that says if the other party, whoever the other party is, gets elected, the markets are gonna, quote, go to zero, or if my guy doesn't stay elected, or if the other guy gets elected.
Speaker CHow much does the political party that's in power affect markets?
Speaker DHistorically, it's a great question.
Speaker DTry not to get myself or you in trouble in answering it, but it is something that firm has looked at and, you know, I would just take a step back and I mean, I'm a big voracious reader of US history and I often tell people, you know, as rough as some of our history has been.
Speaker DSometimes it can be advantageous to just take a look at it and make yourself feel a little better about where we are today.
Speaker DSo are we in a period of divisiveness?
Speaker DFor sure.
Speaker DDo we all wish that wasn't the case?
Speaker DAbsolutely.
Speaker DBut here we are, and it's.
Speaker DIt's really not new in US History or really world history.
Speaker DAnd if you look back, I mean, we've been through much worse than this.
Speaker DCivil War, two, World Wars, Great Depression, all of those things.
Speaker DAnd yet here we are.
Speaker DSo I would say again, similar theme, kind of zoom out a little bit.
Speaker DNow, what our research has showed is that it often doesn't really matter who's in charge in terms of market returns and things like that.
Speaker DAnd I know the temptations there, right?
Speaker DIf this person's in and their policy is going to be this and this is what's going to happen.
Speaker DBut the markets aren't really simple and linear like that.
Speaker DI mean, the perfect example, you know, most Recently, I think 2016.
Speaker DSo if you look, you know, when you and I went to bed on election election night in 2016, the stock market futures were down, what, 6, 7, 800 points?
Speaker DAnd that might sound quaint today, just given what we've been through since then, but, I mean, that was a big drop at the time.
Speaker DAnd yet by the time I got into the office the next day, the market was up 600.
Speaker DSo, I mean, the conventional wisdom there, right, was if this guy gets in and this is going to be bad, and ended up being the opposite.
Speaker DWe actually had a great few years of returns there up until Covid.
Speaker DAnd so I don't know how to handicap that personally.
Speaker DRight.
Speaker DYou say if this person gets in, they're going to do this policy.
Speaker DAnd I said, markets are reacting to what other people are pricing in.
Speaker DAnd David, I would even go so far to say right now, whichever side it is, let's just say you believe, hey, this party is going to take power.
Speaker DThey're actually going to be able to get things done.
Speaker DThey're going to do policy xyz, and that's going to be bad for the economy.
Speaker DWell, now we have this world where sometimes what's bad for the economy means the Fed maybe stops raising rates and becomes more accommodative, and that's good for the stock market, maybe that's good for the bond market.
Speaker DSo those are the kind of questions you have to ask yourself.
Speaker DI just encourage people to just again, zoom out.
Speaker DI mean, you're going to go through, you know, this party in power and that party in power.
Speaker DAnd your most people aren't going to agree with most of the decisions and policies over periods of time.
Speaker DAnd yet, you know, over the long periods of time, the markets have done well and people have been able to achieve their goals if they are able to stick through.
Speaker CI've always kind of looked at market returns and president like a football coach.
Speaker CYou know, the coach gets way more credit when they win and way too much blame when they lose.
Speaker CI mean, sometimes, you know, quarterback throws a ball and the receiver just doesn't catch it.
Speaker CCoach really can't change that.
Speaker CAnd other times the receiver does catch it and makes a great play and then the coach says, you know, then the coach is a brilliant coach that coached a great game and they won.
Speaker CAnd you know, I kind of look at, you know, the party in power being now, you know, we all need to be informed and vote by your principles and everything.
Speaker CBut I just don't think it's that simple.
Speaker CAs if, you know, the other party gets in power, you know, you can lose all your money in the markets.
Speaker CHey, let's take a quick break from the podcast.
Speaker CAre you a business owner and are.
Speaker AYou hoping at some point to sell your business and have those funds fund your retirement?
Speaker AWell, if so, I'd love for you to go to www.allofmyassets.com freedom score.
Speaker AYou can take the questionnaire and it gives you some knowledge of your readiness, of how close or how far you are from having freedom in your financial life.
Speaker AThat's www.allofmyassets.com freedomscore and let's get back to the podcast.
Speaker DTotally agree.
Speaker DAnd I mean, if you're making, you know, if you're getting in and out of the market based on that, I mean, chances are you're probably looking at other stuff and kind of making the same decisions.
Speaker DIt's just you really have to separate, you know, ultimately, right.
Speaker DThe markets and investing is a means to an end.
Speaker DAnd I know, you know, from your and I conversations, you're focused on helping your clients meet their goals.
Speaker DYou're not necessarily focused on, you know, the highest possible return year after year or necessarily avoiding losses.
Speaker DIt's basically impossible to predict ahead of time.
Speaker DSo just going back to what those goals are and just reminding investors and, you know, if you're not working with advisors, just making sure that you keep it front of mind that your goal here is not to just maximize returns, it's something else, something, you know, potentially far down the road.
Speaker CYou work a lot in kind of the behavioral stuff side of decision making.
Speaker CAnd over the last few years, when a lot of clients were getting 15 to 25% returns on their portfolios, you heard no complaints.
Speaker CObviously, this year you're hearing clients say, well, I don't believe in the stock market.
Speaker CI can lose all my money.
Speaker CWhat makes the human mind forget so quickly that my portfolio is up big time over the last five years, this year it's down, but I've still basically lost only some of my gain.
Speaker CHow does it.
Speaker CLike, what does the mind.
Speaker CWhat controls that in the mind to make people forget?
Speaker CLike almost having a change of opinion based on the results.
Speaker DWell, I'll start with this.
Speaker DSo Daniel Kahneman, who I'm sure you're familiar with, basically invented the field of behavioral finance and behavioral psychology, recently won a Nobel prize for it.
Speaker DSo he's famous for saying, the more he's learned about how the brain has worked and how decision making works, he has gotten no better at actually making decisions.
Speaker DAnd so even if I, you know, first of all, I don't know, right?
Speaker DI don't know the exact answer to that.
Speaker DI mean, there's plenty of studies around about recency bias and just short memory span and things like that.
Speaker DPoint being, even if I did know the exact answer for every single human being of why that exactly is, I'm not sure it really matters a whole lot.
Speaker DBut ultimately, I think it just does come down to that recency bias.
Speaker DAnd humans have a hard time thinking over multiple time horizons and thinking about probabilities and tracking what I call alternate universes, or what an academic would call counterfactual.
Speaker DSo what I mean by that is, and it's particularly pervasive in the investment world, where the second you make a decision, there is another decision that would have been better, and it's in your face.
Speaker DWe talked about the media and people watching the financial news and all that.
Speaker DAnd that's an issue because I could sit here and buy a stock, and a millisecond later, there's probably another stock somewhere in the market that did better.
Speaker DCompound that minute by minute, day after day, year after year.
Speaker DAnd it just, I think it, especially in the age of information, I would say, breeds a unique quantity of regret because of that.
Speaker DAnd so we don't have a counterfactual for what else could have been based on your decisions.
Speaker DSo we also don't know, hey, if I had bailed out of the market when I wanted to, how bad would things have been?
Speaker DAnd I use this thought experiment, and I actually Have a chart of it where we took the market in 2020 and we tracked it down to its bottom and then back up.
Speaker DI think it was up almost 20% on the year, even though it was down 30 at one point.
Speaker DSo massive turnaround there.
Speaker DAnd we actually overlay on the chart the different headlines throughout the year and we make the point that there's never going to be an all clear signal.
Speaker DAnd to the extent that there is, it's probably too late.
Speaker DAnd I think 2020 was a perfect year because I know early on in that year, during the shutdowns and everything from COVID we were hearing, I'm going to bail out of the market and I'll get back in when there's a cure, I'll get back in when the pandemic's over, whatever it may have been.
Speaker DAnd so if you think about that, I mean, there was kind of like a really, you know, a really definitive all clear signal in that case, which was the vaccine being approved.
Speaker DRight.
Speaker DSo if you're sitting there at the bottom and saying, I'm going to get out, I'm going to get back in when there's a vaccine, well, that all happened in the same year.
Speaker DAnd here's what would have happened.
Speaker DSo if you had, let's just say, a million dollar portfolio at the beginning of the year, let's say you bailed out somewhere along the way.
Speaker DRight?
Speaker DEven a relatively 40 balanced portfolio was down 20 plus percent at one point.
Speaker DJust say you timed it really poorly, got out at the bottom, it happened fast.
Speaker DSo that's not unreasonable.
Speaker DI mean, we have data that people did that happened within a couple weeks.
Speaker DAnd I think a lot of people capitulated.
Speaker DAll right, so you have your million dollars, you lock in your $800,000 and say, I'll get back in, I'll get back in when the all clear signal arrives.
Speaker DSo fast forward later that year, let's say you get back in when the vaccine's approved.
Speaker DWell, the market was up almost 20% at the point that it happened.
Speaker DSo your million dollar portfolio, if you had just done nothing and let's not even account for rebalancing and all of those things that we just talked about, right, that were to add value and you'd actually be better off for having gone through the downturn.
Speaker DAnd that's again, not to just gloss over the tragedy and the nature of why the market was down.
Speaker DYou're talking an $800,000 portfolio versus a $1.2 million portfolio just from not bailing out at the bottom when it hurt and waiting for the all clear signal.
Speaker CSo now devil's advocate, you know, hindsight is 20 20.
Speaker CSo you know, if you were a client facing financial advisor, talking to that same person when their million dollars had talk turned into $800,000 and let's assume it's not their only money, they have some cash and they still have some income.
Speaker CAnd you know, like, what are you telling this person?
Speaker CBecause again, you don't have the benefit of knowing the future.
Speaker DYep.
Speaker DI mean, if I'm sitting there and I'm an advisor, what I'm telling them is, hey, we've had this conversation before, right.
Speaker DWhen we put your asset allocation into place, we were very aware that, you know, the markets could go down 20, 30, I mean, 2008, not all that long ago.
Speaker DYou and I were both in the industry at the time.
Speaker DI mean, the stock market was down 50% at one point.
Speaker DYou go back to the tech bubble bursting.
Speaker DI was in college at the time.
Speaker DI mean, the market was down greater than 50%.
Speaker DI mean, I'm not that old and I've seen the market go down -50 multiple times just in my adult life.
Speaker DAnd so I would say, hey, you know, we were prepared for this.
Speaker DWe knew that this was a possibility.
Speaker DIt doesn't make it any easier.
Speaker DI would be talking to them with empathy and understanding.
Speaker DAnd certainly I, I can't speak for you, but I know I was sitting in that moment just absolutely terrified of what was going on in the markets in the world.
Speaker DAnd so I think we acknowledge that and be vulnerable.
Speaker DRight.
Speaker DWe're all humans too.
Speaker DIt's not like we're robots over here.
Speaker DBut I would just say time and time again throughout history, the markets go down.
Speaker DThey price in what the recovery is going to be, and that's when the money's made.
Speaker DThose are the moments that probably decide whether you're going to reach your goals or not.
Speaker DAnd so, you know, ultimately it's, we can get out of the market.
Speaker DNow.
Speaker DHistorically, every single time the market had ever been down in the past, and every time's a little bit different.
Speaker DAnd it's always possible that moment will be different and this will be the big one.
Speaker DYou know, every single time throughout all of investing history, if you had made that move, you know, those are the big mistakes and that's the, that's the one that cost you your ability to meet your goals or not.
Speaker DAnd so it's either hang on for the ride or hope that the same thing happens this time and it bounces back eventually and you're able to meet your goals or you get out.
Speaker DAnd I think the thing there too is if you don't believe that it's going to bounce back this time, if you do believe that, that's it and the system's over.
Speaker DAnd again.
Speaker DEarly on in my career during the financial crisis, I remember being on a trading floor and I remember watching Congress vote down tarp, the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Speaker DAnd I want to say the Dow was at like 8 or 9,000 or something and it went down a thousand.
Speaker DAnd you know, I hadn't been through it as a professional at that point I'm just thinking to myself, man, I wonder if the whole thing's over, right?
Speaker DIs the house of cards crumbling?
Speaker CThat's it.
Speaker DAnd at that point you just ask, well then what's the difference, right?
Speaker CThat's true.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker CI don't know.
Speaker CWell, I'm sure you're aware of Nick Murray and his work as a coach of financial advisors.
Speaker CHe says quite simply the finance a financial advisor is a behavior modifier and someone who just helps their clients to make the sound decisions.
Speaker CThey're not always, I don't want to say right decisions, but you have to kind of have a plan and a philosophy and stick with that and then use that as a basis for your future decisions.
Speaker DSo in your last point on that, I would say too, like, you know, how do you get through these moments?
Speaker DI talk about the percents that clients care about.
Speaker DAgain I mentioned investing is a means to an end.
Speaker DAnd it's almost like, I don't want to say changing the subject, but it is, it's changing the topic of conversation back to that end.
Speaker DAnd so what I mean by that and one of the great things about the markets is that forward looking returns generally improve as the market goes down.
Speaker DRight.
Speaker DIf you believe over a long time horizon, returns are going to be xyz obviously in the moment.
Speaker DIf they're down, you know, that means the returns are higher.
Speaker DAnd so oftentimes financial planners will use software or technology to do what's called a Monte Carlo simulation that just says hey, in a thousand or ten thousand future paths in which the way the world could go, this is the percentage of times that you're going to be able to reach your goals.
Speaker DAnd there's kind of this self correcting mechanism in there where it's if the market goes down 20% that means the returns are looking better in the future.
Speaker DAnd so while the market may be down 20%, your progress towards your goal Right.
Speaker DYour probability of reaching that goal is not down 20%.
Speaker DAnd so, you know, maybe you go from 90% chance to 85% chance.
Speaker DBut here's the issue.
Speaker DIf you do bail out of the market at any point along that way, that actually locks in the loss on your ability to meet your goal.
Speaker DRight.
Speaker DSo you can either lock in the loss of the portfolio or you lock in the loss on the goal.
Speaker DAnd I think that's a really powerful kind of tactic, again, whether with an advisor or on your own, to get through it.
Speaker DIt may feel great to just not be in the market, but does it feel great when you realize you're fundamentally altering your ability to meet your future goals because of it?
Speaker CYeah, because it's all about meeting the goals, for sure.
Speaker CNot necessarily, you know, beating the S and P or beating an index.
Speaker CYou know, one of the things that I do that's a little bit different than a lot of financial advisors is I figured that a lot of my clients are business owners and their biggest asset is their business itself.
Speaker CAnd you have direct control or some direct control over how much your business is going to be valued.
Speaker CWhereas if I buy Amazon, I have zero control over what if Amazon's value is going to increase.
Speaker CSo I became a certified value builder advisor.
Speaker CAnd in addition to the typical financial planning vehicles, I also help business owners to increase the value of their business because there's eight drivers of business value.
Speaker CSo that does two things.
Speaker CIt gives business owners a feeling of control because they can have some control, especially during times like this.
Speaker CAnd it also, you know, typically business owners just don't know what their business is worth and how much they can sell it for.
Speaker CSo we've kind of worked through a lot of of those issues that helps business owners to, you know, to build up their biggest asset.
Speaker CBecause like I said, your brokerage portfolio, we have a great process, but we still don't have direct, direct control over the value of those assets.
Speaker CSo in your work, have you been able to quantify like the value of a good financial advisor and what it means to kind of a typical client?
Speaker DYeah, that's.
Speaker DFirst of all, I appreciate the commentary about working with the small business owners.
Speaker DI think that's so important and so underappreciated.
Speaker DAnd I know, you know, even yourself as a financial advisor, I mean, you are effectively a small business owner.
Speaker DI think we, we could all use a little bit of help on that front.
Speaker DBut on the financial advisor side, we have.
Speaker DSo our firm has published under this research franchise we call Advisors Alpha, which is Slang for the value that someone like yourself can add to a client.
Speaker DAnd we've been studying it for years.
Speaker DI've been part of that team going all the way back to 2010.
Speaker DAnd so we found in our work Quantifying Advisors Alpha that a good advisor that's following a holistic wealth management process is worth about 3% in net returns over the long term.
Speaker DSo a few caveats there, a few big caveats.
Speaker DOne is that's much more of an art than a science.
Speaker DSure.
Speaker DWe're not saying that's precise.
Speaker DIt's not something that's going to show up on a statement.
Speaker DSo it's not.
Speaker DAt the end of the year, David, your clients get a statement and said, this is David's value right here.
Speaker DIt's exactly 3.0%.
Speaker DIt's going to be over a long period of time through the ups and downs of the markets and things like that.
Speaker DAnd then the third one is, that is relative to what we've been able to kind of define as the average experience.
Speaker DSo if we look at aggregate data of what investors are doing on their own versus what could be, if they had a little bit of help with someone like yourself, that's about what they would get.
Speaker DAnd it's really powerful.
Speaker DI would say it's probably underestimated because that's the year over year, but it doesn't account for you.
Speaker DGo back to the dollar example I just used with the COVID Right.
Speaker DThe million dollars versus 800 versus 1.2.
Speaker DI mean, that's basically a 50% relative difference, 800 versus 1.2.
Speaker DThat may have occurred in a 15 minute phone call, ostensibly.
Speaker DAnd so the other point there is that it's really about closing the gap between gross and net returns.
Speaker DI think some advisors take on an investment process where they try to beat the market and produce alpha outperformance.
Speaker DThat's great.
Speaker DIt's really difficult.
Speaker DUltimately, you know, there's a lot of value to be added between the percent that's on the paper.
Speaker DRight.
Speaker DSo whatever that, whatever that final return is, whether it's active, whether it's all index funds and you're just getting the market, whether it's, you know, a 2080 conservative portfolio or 100% stock aggressive portfolio, what happens is you're gonna lose, you're gonna lose out on high costs, you're gonna lose out on taxes, and you're gonna lose out on behavior.
Speaker DAnd so our work is really focused on how can we minimize the leakage in those three areas.
Speaker DAnd that's A tremendous value that advisors bring and most individuals aren't doing on their own.
Speaker DAnd candidly, not all advisors are doing that either.
Speaker DSo it's not just hire an advisor and you get that there's some due diligence required there and you have to actually be good at being a financial advisor.
Speaker CAbsolutely.
Speaker CSo let's go back.
Speaker CLet's say you were that guy that had the million dollar portfolio in 2020 and then a few months later you had $800,000.
Speaker CA couple things that you can control.
Speaker CNumber one, let's make sure you have a will to make sure that your assets are disposed of according to your wishes.
Speaker CNumber two, let's look at your insurances.
Speaker CRight.
Speaker CSo what if you rear ended me and my family's in my car and you're found you're at fault.
Speaker CAnd let's say that you had minimum car insurance, whatever that means in your state.
Speaker CNow I sue you and now you're having to take money out of a depleted portfolio to pay for my damages.
Speaker CSo think about the difference between the hundreds of thousands of dollars you would personally be writing to my family to pay for our injuries or if we put you in touch, made sure that you had an insurance review for your property and casualty versus not that could be a several hundred or million dollar swing.
Speaker CAnd those are the things that people just don't do.
Speaker CWe don't do do them on their own.
Speaker CWe don't typically go to an attorney and say, hey, what financial documents do I need?
Speaker CWe don't typically go and say what type of insurance?
Speaker CYou know, where are my risk exposures on my insurance?
Speaker CWe don't typically do tax loss harvesting.
Speaker CAnd I, while it's a good idea, you could really screw a lot of things up.
Speaker CSo you should need some professional help.
Speaker CYou don't typically go to your CPA in November and say, hey, what are some things we can do for this year before it's too late.
Speaker CAnd that's where the financial advisors come in a lot.
Speaker CIn addition to managing the investments in a way that makes sense for their clients.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker DAnd David, I would say making sure that you're keeping that stuff up to date.
Speaker DI have family down in Naples, Florida.
Speaker DI was just down there a couple weeks ago right after Hurricane Ian and driving around, just you know, absolutely heartbreaking seeing some of the devastation and just people have lost their homes and their belongings.
Speaker DBut what's even worse, I'm talking to my stepdad who is a mortgage banker down there and he was saying a lot of the older individuals there they may have had flood insurance, they may have had hurricane insurance, and they might not have looked at it for 20 years or so.
Speaker DAnd so when we're in a period like today with inflation and everything seems like it's so darn expensive to replace.
Speaker DYou might have had $200,000 of insurance 20 years ago, and now your home's worth a million dollars and you lose everything in it.
Speaker DAnd like, how do you replace that?
Speaker DAnd, you know, relative to the relatively small increase in premiums to have yourself protected, I think it's things like that, like you said, most people just aren't thinking about it.
Speaker DAnd that's just, you know, there are so many of those things, it's hard to keep on top of them all.
Speaker CYeah, it's almost like a personal trainer, like losing weight, getting stronger, getting in shape.
Speaker CMaybe not rocket science, but if you're paying me to be at the gym to make you work out at 6:00 in the morning, you're going to show up.
Speaker CIf you're not paying me, you probably show up a lot of the time, but not all the time.
Speaker CSo which one are you going to have more results is when you're actually implementing.
Speaker CAnd of course, as a, you know, as a personal trainer, I would have even more insight and expertise that could help accelerate, accelerate your progress and your results.
Speaker CSo I really always stress with just about everybody, get help, make sure there's accountability, make sure there's expertise, because there's just so much that we all don't know that that can really, really have a negative impact on our financial health.
Speaker CSo this is really fascinating and I'm really going to be interested in this final question that I didn't tell you that I was going to ask you.
Speaker CSo, as the weekly wealth podcast, we talk about wealth and we talk about the mindsets, the tactics and the strategies that can help you to build wealth.
Speaker CSo I would love to know, like, what is your definition of, of wealth for you personally, what does wealth mean?
Speaker DThat's a really fantastic question for me and I'll say my household, for my wife and I.
Speaker DAnd luckily, given what I do for a living, we actually have these conversations, which is great for us, it's independence.
Speaker DSo we would like to be able to someday be flexible and independent and spend time, more time with our families, especially as they get older.
Speaker DDavid, I think I told you, my wife's entire family is based down in your world there in Greenville.
Speaker DI'm up here in Philadelphia.
Speaker DI have some family here, some family in Florida.
Speaker DPeople starting to Kind of disperse.
Speaker DAnd so for us, we would love to just be independent, able to kind of move around, spend time with nieces and nephews and children and aging parents someday and things like that.
Speaker DSo everything we do, when it comes time for those moments of should we get out of the market?
Speaker DShould we not, we have to ask ourselves, is this going to give us more or less flexibility in the future if we do that?
Speaker CI love it.
Speaker CSo you're making decisions based on your values, which is super, super important.
Speaker CWalt Disney's brother said, when your values are clear, your decisions are easy.
Speaker DI love that quote.
Speaker CYeah, I like it.
Speaker DWell, awesome.
Speaker CWell, I appreciate your time.
Speaker CYou know, a lot of times I'll have guests on and they're giving valuable information, but they also have something to sell or some.
Speaker CSome service to sell.
Speaker AYou're just.
Speaker CYou're just out here preaching kind of the good news of making good financial decisions.
Speaker CAnd I hold to the philosophy that how we handle our money should positively impact our lives and the lives of those around us.
Speaker CAnd money's not anything, really, but it provides independence and choices and options.
Speaker CSo if you needed four new tires on your car, and if you don't have money, you're pretty screwed because you can't get to work, which means you're going to get fired, you're going to have less money.
Speaker CBut if you need four new tires on your car and you do have the money, then you have a little bit of a pain in the neck day where you have to figure out a way to get your car there and pay for it, but it's just an inconvenience.
Speaker CSo if we handle our money properly, and the way you should handle your money is different than me, but how we handle our money should just help us to sleep at night and make our lives better.
Speaker ASo with all of that being said,.
Speaker CMike, I appreciate your time.
Speaker AAnd yeah, until next week, we wish.
Speaker CEverybody a blessed week.
Speaker AThanks, Mike.
Speaker DThanks, David.
Speaker BThe information presented on this podcast is for general educational purposes only and does not constitute financial investment, legal or tax advice.
Speaker BParallel Financial is registered with the U.S. securities and Exchanges, Exchange Commission, SEC as a registered investment advisor.
Speaker BRegistration does not imply a certain level of skill or training, nor does it constitute an endorsement by the sec.
Speaker BAll investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.
Speaker BPlease consult a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
Speaker AAnd here is your bonus content for this week's episode.
Speaker AAnd actually, really, it's not content.
Speaker AIt is is a question.
Speaker ASo what do you think?
Speaker ADo you like interview episodes or do you like solo episodes.
Speaker AYou know, I started looking back and a lot of my episodes used to be interviews.
Speaker AShould we go back to having maybe half episodes interviews and half solo?
Speaker AOr what are your thoughts?
Speaker AI'd love to know.
Speaker AGo to www.weeklywealthpodcast.com and click on the microphone icon.
Speaker ALeave me a voicemail or just shoot me an email.
Speaker ADavidarallelfinancial.com all right, everybody, have a wonderful week.